Tuesday, May 31, 2011

It's Nowitzki or Never

As the NBA Finals commence this evening, the Heat is on...for the Mavericks. The window of opportunity for aging and under-achieving Dallas was supposed to have been slammed shut, but those crafty veterans found a way to pry it back open and slink in, largely undetected -- unlike their opponent, who seemed giddy to skip the window altogether and instead kick the door down and intentionally trip the alarm system. The Mavericks blended into the background, while the Heat were the focal point of both fury and fawning, becoming a more prominent bullseye than the Target logo. When you run in an elite circle, some people are bound to paint a circle on your back. Most of the public will be pulling for the superstar who stayed in the same city that sought him out on draft day, not the one who left home for greener pastures -- or whiter beaches, if you will.

While LeBron was busy building castles in the sand, the sands of time were depleting for Dallas. Kidd, Marion, Terry, Stojakovic and Nowtizki are close to the end of the road*, but they picked up a drifter who knows defense along the way (Tyson Chandler), and Mark Cuban has decided to shut up and enjoy the ride.

Miami's nucleus is in its prime and should have many more chances to chase championships -- probably with even more robust rosters. Meanwhile, Dallas is so advanced in age that Marion's moniker, "The Matrix," is from a movie that was released a dozen years ago^. Wade knows what it takes to defeat Dallas, even down 0-2, as he did in the 2006 Finals, when having two superstars was enough to swing the series in the Heat's favor. They have the same amount now, plus an all-star. However, Wade looked worn down in the conference finals and we aren't sure Bosh, a big x factor, can be counted on in the clutch (there are reports he shrinks whenever he hears "Under Pressure" on the radio).

The Heat will win if they push the pace, halt their habit of running tons of isolation plays and don't double Dirk. It would help their cause to receive consistent contributions from Haslem and Miller, like they did against Chicago. Spoelstra should consider giving playing time to James Jones for his three-point shooting, Erick Dampier for the motivation he should have to show up his former team and Ilgauskas for his offense (since Joel Anthony doesn't provide any) to see if he can get Chandler into foul trouble.

The Mavericks will win if their streaky shooters can stay hot, while also remembering to remain aggressive and keep the defense on its toes by driving to the basket. This applies to Dirk as well, who must continue to take the ball down low and create contact, even when facing physical play from LeBron. Dallas must gang up on Wade and James, sending the pesky Barrea and Kidd to take swipes at the ball, and force Miami's role players to beat them. And don't discount Terry's desire to keep his trophy tattoo -- the pain of falling in the finals again will be second only to the pain of having his ink removed.

Don't be surprised if this "Hollywood as hell" team -- star-studded, expensive and heavily promoted -- experiences the success of a summer blockbuster, where LeBron winds up carrying a championship on the Stranger Tides of South Beach#.

*We've watched them grow from Boyz II (Old) Men
^ Admit it, you reacted with a Keanu-like "Whoa" at that realization
# Like Thor, we hammered home that metaphor

Friday, May 20, 2011

Kahn Job

Following the draft lottery, T-Wolves GM David Kahn (in this case, the GM is an acronym for general moron) is crying conspiracy. Dan Gilbert had his 14-year-old son, who suffers from a nervous disorder, represent the Cavs at the podium. And why not? He's a better face of the franchise than any of the vagabond players, and after his comic sans outburst, Gilbert has more common sense than to put himself out front. No one will boo a boy, but Kahn saw fit to blame one. That's harsher than a Minnesota winter.

Kahn floated the idea that the NBA powers that be made the ping pong balls bounce the sick kid's way to set up a storybook ending for the sympathetic, stricken figure. That theory is ill-conceived. He's just upset because he wanted the number one pick so he could draft yet another point guard. Kahn's well on his way to ruining a team like he was the valedictorian at the Isiah Thomas School of Management. The system isn't rigged. In fact, it's structured in such a way that a team can't tank the season and be assured the highest pick. At most, it's just a bit of bad luck (and really not even, when you factor in that the Cavs had a higher statistical chance of drafting first since they possessed two picks) Kahn's already plenty lucky to still have his job, considering the team has won a total of 32 games during his tenure and his dubious decision to sign/overpay Darko Milicic as a free agent, a player who wanted to leave the league.

The line of the night, "What's not to like?*," was charmingly uttered by Gilbert's son after being asked to describe himself by a reporter. It was intended to be rhetorical, but Kahn chose to reply and came off as jealous and petty. Kahn attacked the league's integrity, but in doing so, revealed to have none of his own. Next time, leave the howling to actual wolves.

Post-script: Kahn has since backed down from his comments, claiming he was kidding. As a joke, it was received like a Leno one -- no one's laughing.

*If this turns out to be a conspiracy, look for that phrase to become the NBA's slogan next season. And watch for Nick Gilbert to land an internship with Ernst & Young.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

(Ger)Man on a Mission

This postseason, Dallas has been dominant due to the downright reDirkculous performance of its often overlooked superstar. Nowitzki knows his legacy is on the line and he's playing like a person possessed. He discussed his determination on the eve of the playoffs, saying a month ago, "We're playing for a championship. That's really the only goal. If we don't win a championship, it's another disappointing season." After absolutely demolishing the two-time defending champs, who managed to be worse to watch than Lamar Odom's reality show, a title is a distinct possibility for the first time since 2006. And this Mavs team is much better than the one Nowitzki last led to the Finals.

Naturally, next to nobody thought that was true heading into the playoffs, when Portland was the popular pick to upset Dallas. A first-round flame-out, not a foray to the Finals, was more likely, given the Mavs' recent history. Pushing past pesky Portland, still the lower seed, wasn't going to convince the critics, so Dallas had much to prove against L.A. Theoretically, the Lakers length and frontcourt size should've given Dallas problems, even though the Mavs finally had a legitimate center, Tyson Chandler, patrolling the paint. The thinking was that, even though the squads had never met in the playoffs, Kobe and Dirk could cancel each other out, but Bynum and Gasol would be the difference. Instead, the Dallas bench, which didn't boast the Sixth Man of the Year, had a three-for-all, that is when they weren't slicing through the lane at will. The bench was nothing short of Terry-ific, bolstered by Barea, a guard who wasn't going to be in their rotation (Beaubois, who's been demoted to "inactive", has given them bupkis). The J's -- both Jasons (Terry and Kidd) and J.J. -- hit their jays. Whether a finance fiasco was at the heart of it or not, the Lakers chemistry turned out to be combustible. The Lakers quit before Phil Jackson did. For once, it was the Mavs' opponent being openly questioned as soft and displaying a disinterest in defense, not them. Oddly, the Lakers looked worn down and distracted, while the Mavs -- who also have several key players in their 30's -- appeared fresh and focused. Their reward for the sweep was 11 days of rest.

Would that much time off while Dallas was on a roll make them rusty? Dirk answered that question last night with a demonstrative "No" by scoring 48 points, missing only three field goals in the process, while going a perfect 24-for-24 from the free throw line to establish a new NBA playoff record. Perhaps the most amazing part of the extraordinary effort was that he didn't force a single shot, which is more than can be said of several stars during these playoffs (see: Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook). Nowitzki smartly passed when he was doubled. He was aggressive when the situation called for it and drove to the basket instead of depending only on fadeaways.

Heads were both shaken and scratched last week when coach Rick Carlisle declared Dirk a top ten player in league history. Some see that statement as dubious, but Dirk belongs in the discussion. His stroke is sweeter than black forest cake. His touch is more magical than E.T.'s. He's the best tall, blonde, long-legged German to grace the states since Heidi Klum. His Deutsche bank shot is money. A championship would initiate that conversation in more circles. No one is more aware of that than Dirk, whose scoring has spiked, up 5.5 points from his regular season average. His game has always been distinct, now his desire is, too. We've doubted him and dismissed Dallas for the last time.