Tuesday, May 31, 2011

It's Nowitzki or Never

As the NBA Finals commence this evening, the Heat is on...for the Mavericks. The window of opportunity for aging and under-achieving Dallas was supposed to have been slammed shut, but those crafty veterans found a way to pry it back open and slink in, largely undetected -- unlike their opponent, who seemed giddy to skip the window altogether and instead kick the door down and intentionally trip the alarm system. The Mavericks blended into the background, while the Heat were the focal point of both fury and fawning, becoming a more prominent bullseye than the Target logo. When you run in an elite circle, some people are bound to paint a circle on your back. Most of the public will be pulling for the superstar who stayed in the same city that sought him out on draft day, not the one who left home for greener pastures -- or whiter beaches, if you will.

While LeBron was busy building castles in the sand, the sands of time were depleting for Dallas. Kidd, Marion, Terry, Stojakovic and Nowtizki are close to the end of the road*, but they picked up a drifter who knows defense along the way (Tyson Chandler), and Mark Cuban has decided to shut up and enjoy the ride.

Miami's nucleus is in its prime and should have many more chances to chase championships -- probably with even more robust rosters. Meanwhile, Dallas is so advanced in age that Marion's moniker, "The Matrix," is from a movie that was released a dozen years ago^. Wade knows what it takes to defeat Dallas, even down 0-2, as he did in the 2006 Finals, when having two superstars was enough to swing the series in the Heat's favor. They have the same amount now, plus an all-star. However, Wade looked worn down in the conference finals and we aren't sure Bosh, a big x factor, can be counted on in the clutch (there are reports he shrinks whenever he hears "Under Pressure" on the radio).

The Heat will win if they push the pace, halt their habit of running tons of isolation plays and don't double Dirk. It would help their cause to receive consistent contributions from Haslem and Miller, like they did against Chicago. Spoelstra should consider giving playing time to James Jones for his three-point shooting, Erick Dampier for the motivation he should have to show up his former team and Ilgauskas for his offense (since Joel Anthony doesn't provide any) to see if he can get Chandler into foul trouble.

The Mavericks will win if their streaky shooters can stay hot, while also remembering to remain aggressive and keep the defense on its toes by driving to the basket. This applies to Dirk as well, who must continue to take the ball down low and create contact, even when facing physical play from LeBron. Dallas must gang up on Wade and James, sending the pesky Barrea and Kidd to take swipes at the ball, and force Miami's role players to beat them. And don't discount Terry's desire to keep his trophy tattoo -- the pain of falling in the finals again will be second only to the pain of having his ink removed.

Don't be surprised if this "Hollywood as hell" team -- star-studded, expensive and heavily promoted -- experiences the success of a summer blockbuster, where LeBron winds up carrying a championship on the Stranger Tides of South Beach#.

*We've watched them grow from Boyz II (Old) Men
^ Admit it, you reacted with a Keanu-like "Whoa" at that realization
# Like Thor, we hammered home that metaphor

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